@rebsiot said:
1: Progression is fixed at player creation. Increases over time and begins to decrease after physical peak, usually around age 26.
Forecast is what you can expect from the player given the current training/progression. It is a forecast based on current conditions.

2: Train them better. See the values on the spreadsheet...Higher values in the matrix = higher daily average increase.
You can't change progression, you can change how the player is trained.

3: OK = 55-60 Good = 65 Very Good = 75 Excellent > 80
You want the forecast to peak at least at 70...no use in training someone if they are flatliners.

4: Don't worry about the training calculator...it's confusing at first, only pay attention to the matrix until you understand it.

Deduce Progression by taking
todays change amount,
yesterdays training factor
Player motivation at the time his average changes (when the Training # changes in the player screen)
(I think this is when the motivation is taken for the calculation... I think that translates to 0:00 GMT)
Your coach percentage (hover over the footballs in "Staff" section)

You will need a training # > .15 to figure this with any degree of accuracy

Progression (Approximate) = Today's Change / (player motivation * Yesterday Training * Coaching %)

Example.... Player = RDF @ age 20
Change today = .243
Coach = 70%
Motivation = 105% (team won that day)
Training yesterday was Organize Defense = .55 in that matrix (org defense for RDF)

.243/ (1.05 * .55 * .7) = .601 = 60.1% You have a player that can learn reasonably well... what you do with him is your business.

You can reverse the equation to figure out how much training in the future will get you...all that algebra you ignored in school will help!

Progression*motivation*yesterday Training*coach = change.

Bonus Answer: How will progression change over lifetime?

Pay with your balls... Then look at the graph... for example, this theoretical person has a graph that peaks (matters not how high) at age 23.
So that progression # will increase by slower increments until age 23. Then his progression # will be negative...

So you're player is a decent learner, but will peak too early in his career.

=== Progression can be impacted by external factors, such as when the player was promoted, and all sorts of things....Remember, that is a FORECAST...Your actual mileage may vary.


Feel free to correct me where I'm wrong...I derived parts of the last answer.